Saturday 9th Sep 23
South Coast Track, Tasmania
…who pings their PLB.
It is quite reasonable to edit ones track notes when publishing. I’ve refrained from doing so in this entry in an effort to retain the immediacy of the thinking. It all looks and feels different a day or so later, especially from the comfort and safety of Hobart. It is also easy to shape the narrative by what we now know. It continues what we discovered yesterday – our track blocked by high tides.
‘Don’t cross at high tide’ is not the same as ‘Only cross at low tide.’ The latter guidance likely would have changed the plans of this trip. However it does seem a large storm surge is complicating things as well. It is a beautiful walking day but nothing like that is happening now.
I went down the track at 0535 this morning thinking high tide at about 1400 means we should be able to cross. I was greeted by surf surging into the creek mouth and blocking our way. There was no question about a safe crossing. So a number of options are in front of us.
| 1 | We cross tonight at 2330 and camp at west end of Prion until daylight then get to Prion Crossing | Storm is still blowing so finding a shelter in dark and out of storm problematic. Right now we are in a storm and barely know it such is the shelter of this spot |
| 2 | We check at last light storm conditions and go/no-go. Variation on ‘1’ | 1800 observation – it is a no go. |
| 3 | We stay here tonight and see what the conditions are like for a crossing tomorrow night and if suitable, cross then. | We remain in a very safe site. A very sheltered site. |
| 4 | We stay here indefinitely, or rather until this storm subsides and cross at night. Then push on until Prion. This storm could push on for 3-4 days. | This pushes us into emergency territory. We still don’t solve problem of crossing at night. |
| 5 | if storm persists and we can’t get out, walk back to Deadman’s Creek and call it. | If we don’t get to Prion Deadman’s is a better pick up spot. |
| 6 | Back to Melaleuca. Overdue | PLB anyway. |
For the moment we have agreed its option 3. We are in a safe site. We are dry. The tent and tarp are intact. We have food. Food is now being measured out for a much longer stay. But the way things look food may become a deciding factor.
We won’t appear at Cockle Bay on schedule so I anticipate the operator (our booked pick up service) will only notify Police on Tuesday. Hamish will probably not call it until Friday. (We had agreed he would call it if we were two days overdue).
A complicating factor is that there are multiple crossings ahead of us beside this one which will require crossing at midnight and is just not safe. The nagging thought is that we have found ourselves in an emergency call whichever way we look at it.
Last night was sleepless for lots of reasons. But the deep worry is grounded in the discovery that we can only cross at low tide and that low tide at the moment is timed imperfectly. Who can read water in the dark? It’s incredibly difficult and you can’t see any large surf coming even with the very best head torch. Thoughts of Taieri Mouth when Dad would drop us on sandbars in the dark.
There is of course the worry associated with firing that PLB. At what point do we do that? It’s safety first. I would rather fire it and be safe than risk drowning. And the scope for that is very real. Not once but multiple times. That kept me awake too. I dropped off about 0100 but was awake every hour or so until Kavitha’s alarm went off and we then discovered the worst. You don’t want to be the guy that fires the PLB but you also don’t want to be the drowned body(ies) with an unused PLB in their pack.
We will keep praying and planning and keeping an eye on the wx. Dang.
Being inactive does not help and I have chilled off. We have a cup of soup (reminding ourselves the propane needs to be conserved) and pile into our sleeping bags. The brain continues feverish options. In truth it’s hard not to be planning anticipating what opprobrium might greet declaring an emergency. What response from the emergency services and police? It won’t be anything other than a professional response of course and I shouldn’t be thinking of this as I work through our options. I kept reminding myself we need to do what is safe and we have simply found ourselves in a very unsafe situation. One thing I can do is make sure we are in a sensible position for pick up if it comes to that. I think we also need to demonstrate we have made every reasonable effort to get out of here under our own steam.
A leech has been sent off with a pinch of salt. A hard shower of hail briefly beset us. And the birds sing, reminding us of the beauty of the place. Below us the surf roars in a constant thunder reminding us of a fury that is out there but which is not touching this site. For which we are thankful. It does make sense to stay until we can be sure the blow is over.
Another factor at play here is the fear of failure. That drives the often fatal ‘press-on-itis’ against which the Air Force cautions its pilots. Success looked like walking into Cockle Creek. Anything short of that feels like failure. Pride is part of this recipe which cooks into potential fatal decisions. I don’t want to look like a failure so I’ll press on and find myself in a water crossing in the ocean that kills me. If I read about that about anyone else I would think “How stupid. Why didn’t they ping their PLB?”
Success can’t be seen to be walking into Cockle Creek as cool as that might be. Success has to be safe trekkers alive and well in a weeks time.
You work with the information you have. What do we know?
- Low tides are all at midnight or thereabouts.
- We should only cross at low tide
- There is a strong south/south west wind pushing the water into the bay and into Grotto Creek
- We can’t traverse Grotto on a half tide.
What we know we don’t know.
- Other tidal crossings and the nature of water flow and impact of the tide even at low levels
- The weather. If this was only a bushwalk that would be okay. But the impact on the ocean means there is a lot we don’t know.
What can we find out?
- Be down at Grotto at midnight tonight to check what low tide looks like.
- Also check at 0530 again tomorrow in case that has improved. Also at 1800 tonight for same reason.
What are we not prepared for?
- Crossing tidal areas at midnight in other than utterly benign conditions. Actually, crossing in the dark in any circumstances.
Now I am double guessing myself. We have played cards, written notes, gone down to check the crossing, and dozed. So it’s good to revisit the reasoning and considerations. We reflect this is not a bushwalk but a bush and marine walk and we have not understood the marine bit.
1800 and we have just checked the ocean before it is too dark. It still surges and heaves and is disconcerting for a planned crossing. In truth I am deep down fighting the feeling that if I fire off the PLB I have failed. But the fact of the matter is that it gets fired in the next day or so wx depending or in 5 days regardless, since crossing those tidal outlets at midnight remain the root of the problem and the real potential for fatal outcomes. We don’t have the expertise to do that. In short we are stuck, without being able to go forward or back. Going back still requires a PLB option since, if we got to Melaleuca we would only then have to fire it then, given there are no comms out there. But that nagging thought is there – PLB = failure. I will be assured it’s about safety. It is. And if we push back to Melaleuca we only likely trigger the emergency services anyway, even if we don’t trigger the PLB, since we would be a week overdue by the time we got there.
The weather check at 1800 reminded us that this sheltered spot out of the wind makes it hard to assess what’s going on at the bottom of the cliffs below us. But we could see from the creek mouth the sea for as far as we could see was boiling away like mad. Crossing in the middle of the night still seems like a foolish idea. And a dangerous one, rooted in pride as much as anything else.
